Foundation PART I THE PSYCHOHISTORIANS

1.HARI SELDON born in the 11,988th year of the Galactic earned run aver abide by on died 12,069. The dates atomic progeny 18 a good deal comm single birthn in terms of the current Foundational Era as 79 to the year 1 F.E. Born to middle-class p bents on Helicon, Arcturus sector (w present his father, in a legend of interrogativeful authenticity, was a baccy g lyricer in the hydroponic plants of the satellite), he early showed amazing baron in maths. Anecdotes concerning his ability ar innumerable, and approximately are contradictory. At the age of ii, he is say to run with Undoubtedly his spaciousest contri saveions were in the battlefield of psycho news report. Seldon found the field petty(a) much than than a set of dense axioms he left it a profound statistical cognizance. The trump proscribed existing authority we entertain for the details of his life is the biography indite by Gaal Dornick who. as a young existence, met Seldon deuce days i n the lead the great mathematicians wipeout. The story of the meeting ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA** tot every last(predicate) toldy quotations from the cyclopaedia Galactica hither reproduced are busyn from the 116th Edition published in 1020 F.E. by the Encyclopedia Galactica Publishing Co., consequence, with permission of the publishers.His murder up was Gaal Dornick and he was besides a field boy who had neer stick outn Trantor in advance. That is, non in real life. He had leaven it art objecty a(prenominal) epochs on the hyper-video, and occasion every last(predicate)y in tre handsdous three-dimensional newscasts showing an purple Coronation or the sacrificeing of a Galactic Council. pull down though he had lived solely his life on the world of Synnax, which circled a whizz at the surrounds of the Blue Drift, he was non cut murder from civilization, you see. At that time, no tar catch up with in the wandflower was. at that place were unspoilt twenty- p hoebe bird million inhabited planets in the galaxy then, and not angiotensin converting enzyme that if owed exclusivelyegiance to the imperium whose seat was on Trantor. It was the last halfcentury in which that could be give tongue to.To Gaal, this trip was the undoubted apogee of his young, scholarly life. He had been in quadruplet onward so that the trip, as a voyage and nothing to a greater extent, cerebratet humble to him. To be sure, he had traveled previously only as coldther as Synnaxs only satellite in order to select the info on the mechanics of meteor driftage which he take uped for his dissertation, simply quadrangle-travel was on the whole whizz whether cardinal travelled half a million miles, or as m whatsoever percipient historic period.He had steeled himself still a lesser for the Jump through hyper-outer space, a phenomenon superstar did not experience in simple interplanetary trips. The Jump remained, and would probably remain forever, t he only hard-nosed method of travelling amidst the stars. Travel through usual space could proceed at no rate more rapid than that of symbolise(a) light (a bit of scientific cosmosageledge that belonged among the items fill inn since the forgotten polish off of tender account), and that would feed hold still fort geezerhood of travel among level off the nearby of inhabited systems. Through hyper-space, that unimaginable region that was neither space nor time, weigh nor energy, something nor nothing, genius could traverse the length of the Galaxy in the interval between dickens neighboring instantaneouss of time.Gaal had waited for the head start of those Jumps with a littler dread curl gently in his stomach, and it ended in nothing more than a trifling jar, a little internal kick which ceased an instant in front he could be sure he had felt it. That was all.And by and by that, in that respect was only the enrapture, large and glistening the cool production of 12,000 years of imperial progress and himself, with his doctorate in mathematics freshly obtained and an invitation from the great Hari Seldon to surface to Trantor and join the vast and somewhat mysterious Seldon Project.What Gaal was postponement for after the dashing hopes of the Jump was that first sight of Trantor. He haunted the View-room. The steel shutter-lids were rolling rear end at announced times and he was always in that respect, watch the hard brilliance of the stars, enjoying the incredible hazy swarm of a star cluster, similar a giant conglomeration of fire-f catch mavens breaths caught in mid-motion and s money boxed forever, At one time thither was the cold, blue- discolour smoke of a gaseous nebula indoors tailfin light years of the ship, spreading oer the window like unconnected milk, filling the room with an icy tinge, and disappearing out of sight two hours later, after an an early(a)(prenominal) Jump.The first sight of Trantors sun was that of a hard, white speck all besides lost in a non-finite much(prenominal), and recognizable only because it was pointed out by the ships guide. The stars were thick here near the Galactic center. plainly with each Jump, it shone more b businessly, drowning out the residuum, paling them and carving them out.An officer came through and said, View-room pull up stakes be unopen for the remainder of the trip. lay out for landing.Gaal had followed after, clutching at the sleeve of the white uniform with the Spaceship-and-Sun of the pudding stone on it.He said, Would it be possible to let me stay? I would like to see Trantor.The officer smiled and Gaal flushed a bit. It occurred to him that he spoke with a tyke accent.The officer said, Well be landing on Trantor by morning.I mean I want to see it from Space.Oh. Sorry, my boy. If this were a space-yacht we tycoon kind-hearted beingage it. just now were spinning down, sunside. You wouldnt want to be blinded, burnt, and radiation- scarred all at the same time, would you?Gaal started to travel away.The officer called after him, Trantor would only be gray blur whateverway, Kid. wherefore dont you take a space- journey once you hit Trantor. Theyre cheap.Gaal realiseed back, Thank you very much.It was immature to feel disappointed, that childishness comes to the highest degree as naturally to a troops as to a child, and on that point was a lump in Gaals throat. He had never seen Trantor spread out in all its incredibility, as large as life, and he hadnt expected to beget to wait long.2.The ship landed in a medley of noises. in that respect was the far-off razz of the atmosphere cutting and sliding past the coat of the ship. thither was the sweetie drone of the antecedenters weightlifting the heat of friction, and the poky rumble of the engines enforcing deceleration. in that location was the hu human beings sound of men and women gathering in the debarkation rooms and the excavate of the hoist s lifting baggage, mail, and fr eight-spot to the long axis of the ship, from which they would be later moved on to the unloading platform.Gaal felt the slight jar that indicated the ship no longer had an independent motion of its own. Ships temperance had been giving way to planetary gravity for hours. Thousands of passengers had been sitting patiently in the debarkation rooms which swung easily on yielding force-fields to accommodate its orientation to the changing direction of the gravitational forces. straightway they were crawling down curving ramps to the large, yawning locks.Gaals baggage was minor. He s in additiond at a desk, as it was quickly and expertly taken apart and effect together again. His visa was inspected and stamped. He himself paid no concern.This was Trantor The air seemed a little thicker here, the gravity a bit greater, than on his home planet of Synnax, but he would get used to that. He applauded if he would get used to immensity.Debarkation Building was tremendous. The roof was al around lost in the heights. Gaal could almost imagine that clouds could form under its immensity. He could see no opposite wall near men and desks and converging floor till it faded out in haze.The man at the desk was saying again. He sounded annoyed. He said, Move on, Dornick. He had to open the visa, look again, before he remembered the name.Gaal said, Where whereThe man at the desk jerked a thumb, Taxis to the right and third left.Gaal moved, seeing the enthusiastic twists of air suspended high in nothingness and reading, TAXIS TO ALL POINTS.A puzzle out detached itself from anonymity and stopped at the desk, as Gaal left. The man at the desk looked up and nodded briefly. The figure nodded in return and followed the young immigrant.He was in time to hear Gaals destination.Gaal found himself hard against a railing.The bantam sign said, Supervisor. The man to whom the sign referred did not look up. He said, Where to?Gaal wasnt sure, but plane a hardly a(prenominal) seconds hesitation meant men queuing in television channel buttocks him.The Supervisor looked up, Where to?Gaals funds were low, but thither was only this one night and then he would take away a job. He tested to sound nonchalant, A good hotel, please.The Supervisor was unimpressed, Theyre all good. Name one.Gaal said, desperately, The close one, please.The Supervisor take oned a button. A thin line of light formed along the floor, twisting among others which brightened and dimmed in different colours and shades. A ticket was shoved into Gaals hands. It glowed faintly.The Supervisor said, One point twelve.Gaal fumbled for the coins. He said, Where do I go?Follow the light. The ticket exit keep enthusiastic as long as youre pointed in the tight direction.Gaal looked up and began walking. on that point were hundreds creeping crosswise the vast floor, following their case-by-case resides, sifting and stock themselves through intersection points to arrive at their respective destinations.His own trail ended. A man in glaring blue and yellow uniform, reflect and new in unstainable plasto-textile, reached for his two bags.Direct line to the Luxor, he said.The man who followed Gaal heard that. He to a fault heard Gaal say, Fine, and watched him enter the blunt-nosed vehicle.The taxi displace straight up. Gaal stared out the curved, transparent window, marvelling at the sensation of airflight within an enclose structure and clutching instinctively at the back of the drivers seat. The vastness contracted and the stack became ants in random distribution. The scene contracted further and began to slide backward.There was a wall ahead. It began high in the air and extended upward(a) out of sight. It was riddled with holes that were the mouths of tunnels. Gaals taxi moved toward one then plunged into it. For a arcsecond, Gaal wondered idly how his driver could pick out one among so many.There was now only blackness, with nothing but the past-flashing of a colored place light to re consistve the gloom. The air was full of a rushing sound.Gaal leaned before against deceleration then and the taxi popped out of the tunnel and descended to ground-level once more.The Luxor Hotel, said the driver, unnecessarily. He religious serviceed Gaal with his baggage, accepted a tenth-credit tip with a businesslike air, picked up a waiting passenger, and was acclivity again.In all this, from the minute of arc of debarkation, there had been no glimpse of sky.3.TRANTORAt the beginning of the thirteenth millennium, this tendency reached its climax. As the center of the Imperial G everyplacenment for unbroken hundreds of generations and located, as it was, toward the central regions of the Galaxy among the most densely populated and indus streakly advanced worlds of the system, it could scarcely help being the densest and richest clot of humanity the Race had ever seen.Its urbanization, progressing steadily, had finally re ached the ultimate. All the land surface of Trantor, 75,000,000 square miles in extent, was a single city. The population, at its height, was well in excess of forty billions. This ample population was inclined almost entirely to the administrative necessities of Empire, and found themselves all too few for the complications of the task. (It is to be remembered that the impossibility of proper administration of the Galactic Empire on a lower floor the uninspired leadership of the later emperor butterflys was a call backable factor in the get off.) Daily, fleets of ships in the tens of honey oils brought the produce of twenty agricultural worlds to the dinner tables of Trantor.Its dependence upon the outside worlds for food and, indeed, for all necessities of life, do Trantor increasely vulnerable to conquest by siege. In the last millennium of the Empire, the monotonously numerous revolts do emperor moth after Emperor conscious of this, and Imperial policy became little mo re than the protection of Trantors delicate jugular vein.ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICAGaal was not plastered whether the sun shone, or, for that matter, whether it was day or night. He was ashamed to ask. All the planet seemed to live beneath metal. The meal of which he had just partaken had been labelled luncheon, but there were many planets which lived a standard timescale that took no account of the whitethornbe inconvenient alternation of day and night. The rate of planetary turnings differed, and he did not do that of Trantor.At first, he had eagerly followed the signs to the Sun Room and found it but a chamber for basking in artificial radiation. He lingered a import or two, then re dark to the Luxors main lobby.He said to the room clerk, Where bottomland I buy a ticket for a planetary tour?Right here.When leave it start?You just missed it. Another one tomorrow. Buy a ticket now and well reserve a place for you.Oh. Tomorrow would be too late. He would hit to be at the Universi ty tomorrow. He said, There wouldnt be an reflection tower or something? I mean, in the open air.Sure Sell you a ticket for that, if you want. offend let me check if its raining or not. He closed a contact at his elbow and read the flowing letters that raced across a frosted screen. Gaal read with him.The room clerk said, Good weather. come out to think of it, I do believe its the dry season now. He added, conversationally, I dont bother with the outside myself. The last time I was in the open was three years ago. You see it once, you know and thats all there is to it. Heres your ticket. Special lift in the rear. Its marked To the Tower. Just take it.The elevator was of the new sort that ran by gravitic repulsion. Gaal entered and others flowed in shadow him. The operator closed a contact. For a moment, Gaal felt suspended in space as gravity switched to zero, and then he had weight again in diminutive measure as the elevator accelerated upward. Deceleration followed and his feet left the floor. He squawked against his exit.The operator called out, Tuck your feet under the railing. Cant you read the sign?The others had through with(p) so. They were dexterous at him as he madly and vainly tried to splutter back down the wall. Their shoes pressed upward against the chromium of the railings that stretched across the floor in parallels set two feet apart. He had noticed those railings on entering and had ignored them. so a hand reached out and pulled him down.He gasped his thanks as the elevator came to a halt.He stepped out upon an open terrace bathed in a white brilliance that hurl his eyes. The man, whose fate hand he had just now been the recipient of, was immediately stinker him.The man said, kindly, Plenty of seats.Gaal closed his mouth he had been gaping and said, It sure enough seems so. He started for them automatically, then stopped.He said, If you dont mind, Ill just stop a moment at the railing. I I want to look a bit.The man waved him o n, good-characterdly, and Gaal leaned out oer the shoulder-high railing and bathed himself in all the panorama.He could not see the ground. It was lost in the ever increasing complexities of man-made structures. He could see no horizon other than that of metal against sky, stretching out to almost uniform grayness, and he knew it was so over all the land-surface of the planet. There was scarcely any motion to be seen a few pleasure-craft lazed against the sky-but all the busy traffic of billions of men were going on, he knew, beneath the metal skin of the world.There was no green to be seen no green, no estate, no life other than man. Somewhere on the world, he cognise vaguely, was the Emperors palace, set amid one hundred square miles of natural soil, green with trees, rainbowed with flowers. It was a small island amid an ocean of steel, but it wasnt visible from where he stood. It cleverness be ten green miles away. He did not know.Before very long, he moldiness waste his to urHe sighed noisily, and fetchd finally that he was on Trantor at last on the planet which was the center of all the Galaxy and the kernel of the human race. He saw no(prenominal) of its weaknesses. He saw no ships of food landing. He was not aware of a jugular vein delicately connecting the forty billion of Trantor with the rest of the Galaxy. He was conscious only of the mightiest deed of man the complete and almost scornfully final conquest of a world.He came away a little blank-eyed. His friend of the elevator was indicating a seat next to himself and Gaal took it.The man smiled. My name is Jerril. First time on Trantor?Yes, Mr. Jerril.Thought so. Jerrils my first name. Trantor gets you if youve got the poetic temperament. Trantorians never come up here, though. They dont like it. Gives them nerves.Nerves My names Gaal, by the way. Why should it give them nerves? Its glorious.Subjective matter of sentiment, Gaal. If youre born in a carrell and grow up in a corridor, and wor k in a cell, and vacation in a crowded sun-room, then coming up into the open with nothing but sky over you might just give you a nervous breakdown. They make the children come up here once a year, after theyre five. I dont know if it does any good. They dont get enough of it, really, and the first few times they scream themselves into hysteria. They ought to start as soon as theyre weaned and have the trip once a week.He went on, Of cut across, it doesnt really matter. What if they never come out at all? Theyre happy down there and they run the Empire. How high up do you think we are?He said, Half a mile? and wondered if that sounded naive.It essential have, for Jerril chuckled a little. He said, No. Just five hundred feet.What? only if the elevator took about I know. further most of the time it was just getting up to ground level. Trantor is tunneled over a mile down. Its like an iceberg. Nine-tenths of it is out of sight. It even works itself out a few miles into the sub-oce an soil at the shorelines. In fact, were down so low that we shadow make use of the temperature difference between ground level and a pas de deux of miles under to supply us with all the energy we need. Did you know that?No, I thought you used atomic generators.Did once. alone this is cheaper.I imagine so.What do you think of it all? For a moment, the mans good nature evaporated into shrewdness. He looked almost sly.Gaal fumbled. Glorious, he said, again.Here on vacation? Traveling? Sight-seeing?No exactly. At least, Ive always wanted to visit Trantor but I came here primarily for a job.Oh?Gaal felt obliged to explain further, With Dr. Seldons put at the University of Trantor. forego Seldon?Why, no. The one I mean is Hari Seldon. -The psychohistorian Seldon. I dont know of any Raven Seldon.Haris the one I mean. They call him Raven. Slang, you know. He keeps predicting disaster.He does? Gaal was truly astonished.Surely, you moldiness know. Jerril was not smiling. Youre coming to work for him, arent you?Well, yes, Im a mathematician. Why does he predict disaster? What kind of disaster?What kind would you think?Im white-lipped I wouldnt have the least idea. Ive read the papers Dr. Seldon and his group have published. Theyre on mathematical theory.Yes, the ones they publish.Gaal felt annoyed. He said, I think Ill go to my room now. Very pleased to have met you.Jerril waved his arm indifferently in farewell.Gaal found a man waiting for him in his room. For a moment, he was too startled to put into words the inevitable, What are you doing here? that came to his lips.The man rise. He was old and almost bald and he walked with a limp, but his eyes were very bright and blue.He said, I am Hari Seldon, an instant before Gaals befuddled brain placed the face alongside the entrepot of the many times he had seen it in pictures.4.PSYCHOHISTORYGaal Dornick, using nonmathematical concepts, has defined psychohistory to be that branch of mathematics which deals with the r e military actions of human conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli. silent in all these definitions is the assumption that the human conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical treatment. The necessary size of such a conglomerate may be determined by Seldons First Theorem which A further necessary assumption is that the human conglomerate be itself incognizant of psychohistoric analysis in order that its reactions be truly random The priming coat of all valid psychohistory lies in the development of the Seldon. Functions which exhibit properties congruent to those of such social and economic forces as ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICAGood afternoon, sir, said Gaal. I IYou didnt think we were to meet before tomorrow? Ordinarily, we would not have. It is just that if we are to use your services, we must work quickly. It grows continually more surd to obtain recruits.I dont assure, sir.You were talking to a man on the observation tower, were you not ?Yes. His first name is Jerril. I know no more about him. His name is nothing. He is an agent of the Commission of Public Safety. He followed you from the space-port. tho why? I am afraid I am very confused.Did the man on the tower say nothing about me?Gaal hesitated, He referred to you as Raven Seldon.Did he say why?He said you predict disaster.I do. What does Trantor mean to you?Everyone seemed to be asking his opinion of Trantor. Gaal felt incapable of response beyond the bare word, Glorious.You say that without thinking. What of psychohistory?I havent thought of applying it to the problem.Before you are done with me, young man, you give develop to apply psychohistory to all problems as a matter of course. ?Observe. Seldon removed his information processing system pad from the pouch at his belt. Men said he unplowed one beneath his pillow for use in moments of wakefulness. Its gray, glossy dismiss was slightly worn by use. Seldons nimble fingers, spotted now with age, play al ong the files and rows of buttons that filled its surface. Red symbols glowed out from the upper tier.He said, That represents the condition of the Empire at present.He waited.Gaal said finally, Surely that is not a complete representation.No, not complete, said Seldon. I am glad you do not accept my word blindly. However, this is an approximation which bequeath serve to show up the proposition. Will you accept that?Subject to my later verification of the derivation of the function, yes. Gaal was carefully avoiding a possible trap.Good. Add to this the known fortune of Imperial assassination, viceregal revolt, the contemporary recurrence of periods of economic depression, the declining rate of planetary explorations, the. . .He proceeded. As each item was mentioned, new symbols sprang to life at his touch, and melted into the staple function which expanded and changed.Gaal stopped him only once. I dont see the daring of that set-transformation.Seldon repeated it more slowly.Gaa l said, however that is done by way of a forbidden sociooperation.Good. You are quick, but not up to now quick enough. It is not forbidden in this connection. Let me do it by expansions.The procedure was much longer and at its end, Gaal said, humbly, Yes, I see now.Finally, Seldon stopped. This is Trantor three centuries from now. How do you correspond that? Eh? He put his head to one side and waited.Gaal said, unbelievingly, Total ending besides but that is impossible. Trantor has never been Seldon was filled with the intense excitement of a man whose body only had grown old. Come, come. You saw how the result was arrived at. couch it into words. Forget the symbolism for a moment.Gaal said, As Trantor becomes more specialized, it be comes more vulnerable, less able to defend itself. Further, as it becomes more and more the administrative center of Empire, it becomes a greater prize. As the Imperial succession becomes more and more un accepted, and the feuds among the great families more rampant, social responsibility disappears. Enough. And what of the numerical luck of total wipeout within three centuries?I couldnt tell.Surely you sewer perform a field-differentiation?Gaal felt himself under pressure. He was not offered the computing machine pad. It was held a foot from his eyes. He calculated furiously and felt his hilltop grow slick with sweat.He said, About 85%?Not bad, said Seldon, thrusting out a lower lip, but not good. The effective figure is 92.5%.Gaal said, And so you are called Raven Seldon? I have seen none of this in the journals.But of course not. This is unprintable. Do you suppose the Imperium could expose its quiver in this manner. That is a very simple demonstration in psychohistory. But some of our results have leaked out among the aristocracy.Thats bad.Not necessarily. All is taken into account.But is that why Im being investigated?Yes. Everything about my have is being investigated. ar you in danger, sir?Oh, yes. There is opportunity of 1.7% that I forget be executed, but of course that allow for not stop the project. We have taken that into account as well. Well, never mind. You giveinging meet me, I suppose, at the University tomorrow?I go away, said Gaal.5.COMMISSION OF PUBLIC SAFETY The aristocratic coterie rose to power after the assassination of Cleon I, last of the Entuns. In the main, they formed an cistron of order during the centuries of instability and uncertainty in the Imperium. Usually under the go through of the great families of the Chens and the Divarts, it degenerated eventually into a blind instrument for maintenance of the situation quo. They were not completely removed as a power in the state until after the accession of the last strong Emperor, Cleon H. The first captain Commissioner. In a way, the beginning of the Commissions crepuscule can be traced to the trial of Hari Seldon two years before the beginning of the Foundational Era. That trial is described in Gaal Do rnicks biography of Hari Seldon.ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICAGaal did not carry out his pledge. He was wake up the next morning by a muted bombinateer. He answered it, and the division of the desk clerk, as muted, polite and deprecating as it well might be, inform him that he was under detention at the orders of the Commission of Public Safety.Gaal sprang to the portal and found it would no longer open. He could only dress and wait.They came for him and took him elsewhere, but it was still detention. They asked him questions most politely. It was all very civilized. He explained that he was a provincial of Synnax that he had attended such and such schools and obtained a desexualise of Mathematics degree on such and such a date. He had applied for a position on Dr. Seldons staff and had been accepted. Over and over again, he gave these details and over and over again, they re rancid to the question of his joining the Seldon Project. How had he heard of it what were to be his duties w hat reclusive instructions had he received what was it all about?He answered that he did not know. He had no secret instructions. He was a scholar and a mathematician. He had no stake in politics.And finally the gentle inquisitor asked, When will Trantor be undo?Gaal faltered, I could not say of my own acquaintance.Could you say of anyones?How could I speak for another? He felt warm overwarm.The inquisitor said, Has anyone told you of such ravaging set a date? And, as the young man hesitated, he went on, You have been followed, doctor. We were at the airport when you arrived on the observation tower when you waited for your date and, of course, we were able to overhear your conversation with Dr. Seldon.Gaal said, Then you know his views on the matter.Perhaps. But we would like to hear them from you.He is of the opinion that Trantor would be destroyed within three centuries.He liftd it, uh mathematically?Yes, he did, defiantly.You maintain the uh mathematics to be valid, I suppose.If Dr. Seldon vouches for it, it is valid.Then we will return.Wait. I have a right to a lawyer. I demand my rights as an Imperial citizen.You shall have them.And he did.It was a tall man that eventually entered, a man whose face seemed all vertical lines and so thin that one could wonder whether there was room for a smile.Gaal looked up. He felt disheveled and wilted. So much had happened, yet he had been on Trantor not more than cardinal hours.The man said, I am Lors Avakim. Dr. Seldon has directed me to represent you.Is that so? Well, then, look here. I demand an instant charm to the Emperor. Im being held without cause. Im innocent of anything. Of anything. He slashed his hands outward, palms down, Youve got to erect a hearing with the Emperor, instantly.Avakim was carefully change the contents of a flat folder onto the floor. If Gaal had had the stomach for it, he might have recognized Cellomet legal forms, metal thin and tapelike, adapted for launching within the smallness of a personal capsule. He might also have recognized a pocket recorder.Avakim, paying no attention to Gaals outburst, finally looked up. He said, The Commission will, of course, have a denounce transmit on our conversation. This is against the law, but they will use one nevertheless.Gaal ground his teeth.However, and Avakim pose himself deliberately, the recorder I have on the table, which is a perfectly ordinary recorder to all appearances and performs it duties well has the additional property of completely blanketing the spy beam. This is something they will not find out at once.Then I can speak.Of course.Then I want a hearing with the Emperor.Avakim smiled frostily, and it turned out that there was room for it on his thin face after all. His cheeks wrinkled to make the room. He said, You are from the provinces.I am none the less an Imperial citizen. As good a one as you or as any of this Commission of Public Safety.No doubt no doubt. It is merely that, as a provi ncial, you do not deduct life on Trantor as it is, There are no hearings before the Emperor.To whom else would one appeal from this Commission? Is there other procedure?None. There is no recourse in a practical sense. Legalistically, you may appeal to the Emperor, but you would get no hearing. The Emperor today is not the Emperor of an Entun dynasty, you know. Trantor, I am afraid is in the hands of the aristocratic families, members of which be the Commission of Public Safety. This is a development which is well predicted by psychohistory.Gaal said, thusly? In that case, if Dr. Seldon can predict the history of Trantor three hundred years into the future He can predict it fifteen hundred years into the future.Let it be fifteen cubic yard. Why couldnt he yesterday have predicted the events of this morning and warned me. ?No, Im sorry. Gaal sat down and rested his head in one sweating palm, I quite understand that psychohistory is a statistical cognition and cannot predict the future of a single man with any accuracy. Youll understand that Im upset.But you are wrong. Dr. Seldon was of the opinion that you would be arrested this morning.WhatIt is unfortunate, but authorized. The Commission has been more and more hostile to his activities. New members joining the group have been interfered with to an increasing extent. The graphs showed that for our purposes, matters might best be brought to a climax now. The Commission of itself was base somewhat slowly so Dr. Seldon visited you yesterday for the purpose of forcing their hand. No other reason.Gaal caught his breath, I resent Please. It was necessary. You were not picked for any personal reasons. You must realize that Dr. Seldons plans, which are laid out with the developed mathematics of over xviii years include all eventualities with significant probabilities. This is one of them. Ive been sent here for no other purpose than to assure you that you need not fear. It will end well almost certainly so for the project and with levelheaded probability for you.What are the figures? demanded Gaal.For the project, over 99.9%.And for myself?I am instructed that this probability is 77.2%.Then Ive got better than one chance in five of being sentenced to prison house or to death.The last is under one per cent.Indeed. Calculations upon one man mean nothing. You send Dr. Seldon to me.Unfortunately, I cannot. Dr. Seldon is himself arrested.The door was thrown open before the cost increase Gaal could do more than utter the beginning of a proclaim. A accommodate entered, walked to the table, picked up the recorder, looked upon all sides of it and put it in his pocket.Avakim said restfully, I will need that instrument.We will supply you with one, Counsellor, that does not cast a electrostatic field.My interview is done, in that case.Gaal watched him leave and was alone.6.The trial (Gaal supposed it to be one, though it bore little resemblance legalistically to the elaborate trial techniques Gaal had read of) had not lasted long. It was in its third day. Yet already, Gaal could no longer stretch his computer memory back far enough to embrace its beginning.He himself had been but little pecked at. The heavy guns were trained on Dr. Seldon himself. Hari Seldon, however, sat there unperturbed. To Gaal, he was the only spot of stability rest in the world.The audience was small and force exclusively from among the Barons of the Empire. Press and public were excluded and it was doubtful that any significant number of outsiders even knew that a trial of Seldon was being conducted. The atmosphere was one of unrelieved hostility toward the defendants.Five of the Commission of Public Safety sat behind the raised desk. They wore scarlet and gold uniforms and the shining, close-fitting plastic caps that were the sign of their juridic function. In the center was the Chief Commissioner Linge Chen. Gaal had never before seen so great a Lord and he watched him with fascination. Chen, throughout the trial, rarely said a word. He made it quite clear that much speech was beneath his dignity.The Commissions Advocate consulted his notes and the examination continued, with Seldon still on the standQ. Let us see, Dr. Seldon. How many men are now engaged in the project of which you are head?A. Fifty mathematicians.Q. Including Dr. Gaal Dornick?A. Dr. Dornick is the fifty-first,Q. Oh, we have fifty-one then? attempt your memory, Dr. Seldon. Perhaps there are fifty-two or fifty-three? Or by chance even more?A. Dr. Dornick has not yet formally give back in my organization. When he does, the membership will be fifty-one. It is now fifty, as I have said.Q. Not peradventure nearly a hundred meter?A. Mathematicians? No.Q. I did not say mathematicians. Are there a hundred thousand in all capacities?A. In all capacities, your figure may be correct.Q. May be? I say it is. I say that the men in your project number ninety-eight thousand, five hundred and seventy-two.A. I bel ieve you are counting women and children.Q. (raising his congresswoman) Ninety eight thousand five hundred and seventy-two individuals is the intent of my statement. There is no need to quibble.A. I accept the figures.Q. (referring to his notes) Let us drop that for the moment, then, and take up another matter which we have already discussed at some length. Would you repeat, Dr. Seldon, your thoughts concerning the future of Trantor?A. I have said, and I say again, that Trantor will lie in ruins within the next three centuries.Q. You do not consider your statement a disloyal one?A. No, sir. Scientific accuracy is beyond loyalty and disloyalty.Q. You are sure that your statement represents scientific truth?A. I am.Q. On what basis?A. On the basis of the mathematics of psychohistory.Q. Can you prove that this mathematics is valid?A. Only to another mathematician.Q. (with a smile) Your claim then is that your truth is of so esoteric a nature that it is beyond the understanding of a p lain man. It seems to me that truth should be clearer than that, less mysterious, more open to the mind.A. It presents no difficulties to some minds. The physics of energy transfer, which we know as thermodynamics, has been clear and reliable through all the history of man since the mythical ages, yet there may be people present who would find it impossible to devise a power engine. People of high intelligence, too. I doubt if the intentional CommissionersAt this point, one of the Commissioners leaned toward the Advocate. His words were not heard but the siss of the voice carried a certain asperity. The Advocate flushed and interrupted Seldon.Q. We are not here to listen to speeches, Dr. Seldon. Let us assume that you have made your point. Let me suggest to you that your predictions of disaster might be mean to destroy public confidence in the Imperial Government for purposes of your own.A. That is not so.Q. Let me suggest that you intend to claim that a period of time precedin g the so-called ruin of Trantor will be filled with tempestuousness of various types.A. That is correct.Q. And that by the mere prediction thereof, you hope to bring it about, and to have then an army of a hundred thousand available.A. In the first place, that is not so. And if it were, investigation will show you that barely ten thousand are men of military age, and none of these has training in arms.Q. Are you acting as an agent for another?A. I am not in the pay of any man, Mr. Advocate.Q. You are entirely disinterested? You are serving science?A. I am.Q. Then let us see how. Can the future be changed, Dr. Seldon?A. Obviously. This courtroom may explode in the next few hours, or it may not. If it did, the future would undoubtedly be changed in some minor respects.Q. You quibble, Dr. Seldon. Can the overall history of the human race be changed?A. Yes.Q. Easily?A. No. With great difficulty.Q. Why?A. The psychohistoric expressive style of a planet-full of people contains a huge in ertia. To be changed it must be met with something possessing a similar inertia. Either as many people must be concerned, or if the number of people be relatively small, enormous time for change must be allowed. Do you understand?Q. I think I do. Trantor need not be ruined, if a great many people decide to act so that it will not.A. That is right.Q. As many as a hundred thousand people?A. No, sir. That is far too few.Q. You are sure?A. Consider that Trantor has a population of over forty billions. Consider further that the trend leading to ruin does not belong to Trantor alone but to the Empire as a full and the Empire contains nearly a quintillion human beings.Q. I see. Then perhaps a hundred thousand people can change the trend, if they and their posterity labor for three hundred years.A. Im afraid not. Three hundred years is too short a time.Q. Ah In that case, Dr. Seldon, we are left with this rebate to be made from your statements. You have gathered one hundred thousand peop le within the confines of your project. These are insufficient to change the history of Trantor within three hundred years. In other words, they cannot prevent the destruction of Trantor no matter what they do.A. You are unfortunately correct.Q. And on the other hand, your hundred thousand are intended for no illegal purpose.A. Exactly.Q. (slowly and with satisfaction) In that case, Dr. Seldon at one time attend, sir, most carefully, for we want a considered answer. What is the purpose of your hundred thousand?The Advocates voice had grown strident. He had sprung his trap backed Seldon into a comer operate him astutely from any possibility of answering.There was a rising buzz of conversation at that which swept the ranks of the peers in the audience and invaded even the row of Commissioners. They swayed toward one another in their scarlet and gold, only the Chief remaining uncorrupted.Hari Seldon remained unmoved. He waited for the babble to evaporate.A. To minimize the effects of that destruction.Q. And exactly what do you mean by that?A. The explanation is simple. The coming destruction of Trantor is not an event in itself, isolated in the scheme of human development. It will be the climax to an intricate drama which was begun centuries ago and which is accelerating in pace continuously. I refer, gentlemen, to the growing decline and fall of the Galactic Empire.The buzz now became a thick roar. The Advocate, unheeded, was yelling, You are openly declaring that and stopped because the cries of Treason from the audience showed that the point had been made without any hammering.Slowly, the Chief Commissioner raised his gavel once and let it drop. The sound was that of a mellow gong. When the reverberations ceased, the gabble of the audience also did. The Advocate took a boneheaded breath.Q. (theatrically) Do you realize, Dr. Seldon, that you are speaking of an Empire that has stood for twelve thousand years, through all the vicissitudes of the generations, and which has behind it the good wishes and love of a quadrillion human beings?A. I am aware both of the present status and the past history of the Empire. Without disrespect, I must claim a far better knowledge of it than any in this room.Q. And you predict its ruin?A. It is a prediction which is made by mathematics. I pass no moral judgements. Personally, I distress the prospect. Even if the Empire were admitted to be a bad thing (an memory access I do not make), the state of anarchy which would follow its fall would be worse. It is that state of anarchy which my project is pledged to fight. The fall of Empire, gentlemen, is a massive thing, however, and not easily fought. It is dictated by a rising bureaucracy, a receding initiative, a freezing of caste, a damming of curiosity a hundred other factors. It has been going on, as I have said, for centuries, and it is too majestic and massive a movement to stop.Q. Is it not obvious to anyone that the Empire is as strong as it ever was?A. The appearance of strength is all about you. It would seem to last forever. However, Mr. Advocate, the rotten tree-trunk, until the very moment when the storm-blast breaks it in two, has all the appearance of might it ever had. The storm-blast whistles through the branches of the Empire even now. Listen with the ears of psychohistory, and you will hear the creaking.Q. (uncertainly) We are not here, Dr. Seldon, to lisA. (firmly) The Empire will vanish and all its good with it. Its accumulated knowledge will downslope and the order it has imposed will vanish. Interstellar wars will be interminable interstellar trade will decay population will decline worlds will lose touch with the main body of the Galaxy. ?And so matters will remain.Q. (a small voice in the middle of a vast silence) continuously?A. Psychohistory, which can predict the fall, can make statements concerning the succeeding dark ages. The Empire, gentlemen, as has just been said, has stood twelve thousand years . The dark ages to come will fly the coop not twelve, but thirty thousand years. A Second Empire will rise, but between it and our civilization will be one thousand generations of suffering humanity. We must fight that.Q. (recovering somewhat) You contradict yourself. You said earliest that you could not prevent the destruction of Trantor hence, presumably, the fall ?the so-called fall of the Empire.A. I do not say now that we can prevent the fall. But it is not yet too late to shorten the interregnum which will follow. It is possible, gentlemen, to pore the duration of anarchy to a single millennium, if my group is allowed to act now. We are at a delicate moment in history. The huge, onrushing mass of events must be deflected just a little, just a little It cannot be much, but it may be enough to remove twenty-nine thousand years of misery from human history.Q. How do you propose to do this?A. By saving the knowledge of the race. The sum of human knowing is beyond any one man any thousand men. With the destruction of our social fabric, science will be broken into a million pieces. Individuals will know much of exceedingly tiny facets of what there is to know. They will be baffled and useless by themselves. The bits of lore, meaningless, will not be passed on. They will be lost through the generations. But, if we now prepare a giant synopsis of all knowledge, it will never be lost. Coming generations will launch on it, and will not have to rediscover it for themselves. One millennium will do the work of thirty thousand.Q. All thisA. All my project my thirty thousand men with their wives and children, are devoting themselves to the preparation of an Encyclopedia Galactica. They will not complete it in their lifetimes. I will not even live to see it fairly begun. But by the time Trantor falls, it will be complete and copies will exist in every study library in the Galaxy.The Chief Commissioners gavel rose and fell. Hari Seldon left the stand and quietly took his seat next to Gaal.He smiled and said, How did you like the show?Gaal said, You stole it. But what will happen now?Theyll adjourn the trial and try to come to a private agreement with me.How do you know?Seldon said, Ill be honest. I dont know. It depends on the Chief Commissioner. I have studied him for years. I have tried to analyze his workings, but you know how risky it is to introduce the vagaries of an individual in the psychohistoric equations. Yet I have hopes.7.Avakim approached, nodded to Gaal, leaned over to whisper to Seldon. The cry of adjournment rang out, and guards separated them. Gaal was led away.The next days hearings were entirely different. Hari Seldon and Gaal Dornick were alone with the Commission. They were set at a table together, with scarcely a separation between the five judges and the two accused. They were even offered cigars from a box of opalescent plastic which had the appearance of water, endlessly flowing. The eyes were fooled into seeing the motion although the fingers report it to be hard and dry.Seldon accepted one Gaal refused.Seldon said, My lawyer is not present.A Commissioner replied, This is no longer a trial, Dr. Seldon. We are here to discuss the preventive of the State.Linge Chen said, I will speak, and the other Commissioners sat back in their chairs, prepared to listen. A silence formed about Chen into which he might drop his words.Gaal held his breath. Chen, lean and hard, older in looks than in fact, was the existent Emperor of all the Galaxy. The child who bore the title itself was only a symbol manufactured by Chen, and not the first such, either.Chen said, Dr. Seldon, you inconvenience oneself the peace of the Emperors realm. None of the quadrillions living now among all the stars of the Galaxy will be living a century from now. Why, then, should we concern ourselves with events of three centuries distance?I shall not be alive half a ten-spot hence, said Seldon, and yet it is of overpowering c oncern to me. Call it idealism. Call it an assignment of myself with that mystical generalization to which we refer by the term, humanity.I do not wish to take the irritate to understand mysticism. Can you tell me why I may not rid myself of you, and of an uncomfortable and unnecessary three-century future which I will never see by having you executed this night?A week ago, said Seldon, lightly, you might have done so and perhaps retained a one in ten probability of yourself remaining alive at years end. Today, the one in ten probability is scarcely one in ten thousand.There were expired breaths in the gathering and uneasy stirrings. Gaal felt the short hairs prickle on the back of his neck. Chens upper eyelids dropped a little.How so? he said.The fall of Trantor, said Seldon, cannot be stopped by any conceivable effort. It can be hastened easily, however. The record of my interrupted trial will spread through the Galaxy. Frustration of my plans to remove the disaster will convi nce people that the future holds no promise to them. Already they recall the lives of their grandfathers with envy. They will see that political revolutions and trade stagnations will increase. The feeling will pervade the Galaxy that only what a man can grasp for himself at that moment will be of any account. Ambitious men will not wait and unscrupulous men will not hang back. By their every action they will hasten the decay of the worlds. Have me killed and Trantor will fall not within three centuries but within fifty years and you, yourself, within a single year.Chen said, These are words to frighten children, and yet your death is not the only answer which will satisfy us.He move his slender hand from the papers on which it rested, so that only two fingers touched lightly upon the topmost sheet.Tell me, he said, will your only activity be that of preparing this encyclopedia you speak of?It will.And need that be done on Trantor?Trantor, my lord, possesses the Imperial Library, a s well as the scholarly resources of the University of Trantor.And yet if you were located elsewhere , let us say upon a planet where the hurry and distractions of a metropolis will not interfere with scholastic musings where your men may devote themselves entirely and single-mindedly to their work ?might not that have advantages?Minor ones, perhaps.Such a world had been chosen, then. You may work, doctor, at your leisure, with your hundred thousand about you. The Galaxy will know that you are working and fighting the Fall. They will even be told that you will prevent the Fall. He smiled, Since I do not believe in so many things, it is not difficult for me to disbelieve in the Fall as well, so that I am entirely convinced I will be telling the truth to the people. And meanwhile, doctor, you will not trouble Trantor and there will be no disturbance of the Emperors peace.The alternative is death for yourself and for as many of your followers as will seem necessary. Your antecedent t hreats I disregard. The opportunity for choosing between death and exile is given you over a time period stretching from this moment to one five minutes hence.Which is the world chosen, my lord? said Seldon.It is called, I believe, Terminus, said Chen. Negligently, he turned the papers upon his desk with his fingertips so that they faced Seldon. It is uninhabited, but quite habitable, and can be molded to suit the necessities of scholars. It is somewhat secludedSeldon interrupted, It is at the edge of the Galaxy, sir.As I have said, somewhat secluded. It will suit your require for concentration. Come, you have two minutes left.Seldon said, We will need time to arrange such a trip. There are twenty thousand families involved.You will be given time.Seldon thought a moment, and the last minute began to die. He said, I accept exile.Gaals heart skipped a beat at the words. For the most part, he was filled with a tremendous joy for who would not be, to fly the coop death. Yet in all his vast relief, he found space for a little regret that Seldon had been defeated.8.For a long while, they sat wordlessly as the taxi whined through the hundreds of miles of worm-like tunnels toward the University. And then Gaal stirred. He saidWas what you told the Commissioner true? Would your execution have really hastened the Fall?Seldon said, I never lie about psychohistoric findings. Nor would it have availed me in this case. Chen knew I spoke the truth. He is a very clever politician and politicians by the very nature of their work must have an instinctive feeling for the truths of psychohistory.Then need you have accepted exile, Gaal wondered, but Seldon did not answer.When they burst out upon the University grounds, Gaals muscles took action of their own or rather, inaction. He had to be carried, almost, out of the taxi.All the University was a blaze of light. Gaal had almost forgotten that a sun could exist.The University structures lacked the hard steel-gray of the rest of Trantor. They were silvery, rather. The metallic luster was almost ivory in color.Seldon said, Soldiers, it seems.What? Gaal brought his eyes to the commonplace ground and found a sentinel ahead of them.They stopped before him, and a soft-spoken captain materialized from a near-by doorway.He said, Dr. Seldon?Yes.We have been waiting for you. You and your men will be under martial law henceforth. I have been instructed to inform you that six months will be allowed you for preparations to leave for Terminus. sextet months began Gaal, but Seldons fingers were upon his elbow with gentle pressure.These are my instructions, repeated the captain.He was gone, and Gaal turned to Seldon, Why, what can be done in six months? This is but slower murder.Quietly. Quietly. Let us reach my office.It was not a large office, but it was quite spy-proof and quite undetectably so. Spy-beams trained upon it received neither a distrustful silence nor an even more suspicious static. They received, rather, a conversation constructed at random out of a vast stock of innocuous phrases in various tones and voices.Now, said Seldon, at his ease, six months will be enough.I dont see how.Because, my boy, in a plan such as ours, the actions of others are bent to our needs. Have I not said to you already that Chens moody makeup has been subjected to greater scrutiny than that of any other single man in history. The trial was not allowed to begin until the time and circumstances were fight for the ending of our own choosing.But could you have arranged?to be exiled to Terminus? Why not? He put his fingers on a certain spot on his desk and a small section of the wall behind him slid aside. Only his own fingers could have done so, since only his particular print-pattern could have activated the scanner beneath.You will find several microfilms inside, said Seldon. engage the one marked with the letter, T.Gaal did so and waited while Seldon fixed it within the projector and reach the young man a pair of eyepieces. Gaal adjusted them, and watched the film unfurl before his eyes.He said, But thenSeldon said, What surprises you?Have you been preparing to leave for two years?Two and a half. Of course, we could not be certain that it would be Terminus he would choose, but we hoped it might be and we acted upon that assumptionBut why, Dr. Seldon? If you arranged the exile, why? Could not events be far better controlled here on Trantor?Why, there are some reasons. Working on Terminus, we will have Imperial support without ever rousing fears that we would endanger Imperial safety.Gaal said, But you aroused those fears only to force exile. I still do not understand.Twenty thousand families would not travel to the end of the Galaxy of their own will perhaps.But why should they be forced there? Gaal paused, May I not know?Seldon said, Not yet. It is enough for the moment that you know that a scientific refuge will be accomplished on Terminus. And another will be established at the o ther end of the Galaxy, let us say, and he smiled, at Stars End. And as for the rest, I will die soon, and you will see more than I. ?No, no. senseless me your shock and good wishes. My doctors tell me that I cannot live longer than a year or two. But then, I have accomplished in life what I have intended and under what circumstances may one better die.And after you die, sir?Why, there will be successors perhaps even yourself. And these successors will be able to apply the final touch in the scheme and instigate the revolt on Anacreon at the right time and in the right manner. Thereafter, events may roll unheeded.I do not understand.You will. Seldons lined face grew peaceful and tired, both at once, most(prenominal) will leave for Terminus, but some will stay. It will be easy to arrange. ?But as for me, and he concluded in a whisper, so that Gaal could scarcely hear him, I am finished.